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Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 6, as Carrarese and Modena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.21 xG and Modena 1.71 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Modena attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 24% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 44%, Modena 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Modena's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights