🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Modena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Carrarese and Modena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Modena have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Modena away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Carrarese against 1.70 for Modena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Carrarese winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Modena half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 49% versus Modena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 44% | Modena 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.21 xG and Modena 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.049 / defence 1.217 | Modena attack 1.198 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.169. Data: 43 Carrarese games / 43 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 24% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 70% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights