🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Carrarese and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 28, as Carrarese and Cremonese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Cremonese attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 41%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Cremonese 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights