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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Bari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.58 xG and Bari 0.76 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Bari attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 55% | Draw 28% | Bari 16%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bari's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.16 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights