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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Carrarese welcome Bari to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Bari — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bari have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 0.90 PPG, Bari 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Bari and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Carrarese winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bari in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Bari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Bari 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.58 xG and Bari 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.966 / defence 0.978 | Bari attack 0.745 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.037. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Carrarese games / 56 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 55% | Draw 28% | Bari 16%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Bari 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.

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