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Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Carrarese 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Carrarese 3-4 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.20 xG and Avellino 0.75 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Avellino outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Avellino attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 43% | Draw 38% | Avellino 19%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 0%, Avellino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Avellino's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.67 PPG, Avellino 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Avellino scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights