Carrarese 3-4 Avellino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Carrarese welcome Avellino to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Avellino have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Carrarese) versus 1.33 (Avellino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Carrarese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Avellino in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Avellino trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 33% versus Avellino 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 0% | Avellino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.20 xG and Avellino 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.895 / defence 0.907 | Avellino attack 0.749 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.101. Data: 41 Carrarese games / 3 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 43% | Draw 38% | Avellino 19%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | Avellino 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 60% | Avellino 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 43% | Draw 38% | Avellino 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Carrarese 1.20 / Avellino 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.895 / def 0.907 | Avellino attack 0.749 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Avellino xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Avellino kick off?
Carrarese vs Avellino kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Avellino?
Carrarese 3 - 4 Avellino.
Where is Carrarese vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Avellino part of?
Carrarese vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 43% chance of winning, Avellino a 19% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Carrarese and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Avellino in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Avellino (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.90x the league average against Avellino's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Avellino's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
43%
2.33
38%
2.64
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.95
0.75
Avellino xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.75 for Avellino, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Avellino's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.67 PPG, Avellino on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino in 67%.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Avellino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Avellino in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Avellino have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Carrarese or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Avellino in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Avellino have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Avellino 1-2 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Avellino 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Carrarese and 33% for Avellino.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Avellino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 67% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Carrarese's recent games and 33% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Avellino tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Avellino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Carrarese 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Carrarese 3-4 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.20 xG and Avellino 0.75 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Avellino outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Avellino attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 43% | Draw 38% | Avellino 19%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 0%, Avellino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Avellino's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.67 PPG, Avellino 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Avellino scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.