Cagliari 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Unipol Domus to face Cagliari in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bari have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cagliari, 1 for Bari and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 52% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cagliari 42% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.38 xG and Bari 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.044 / defence 0.942 | Bari attack 1.158 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.063. Data: 38 Cagliari games / 38 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 40% | Draw 30% | Bari 30%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 40% | Draw 30% | Bari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Cagliari 1.38 / Bari 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.044 / def 0.942 | Bari attack 1.158 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bari xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Bari kick off?
Cagliari vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 8 June 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bari?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cagliari vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bari part of?
Cagliari vs Bari is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 40% chance of winning, Bari a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Bari in?
Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bari (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.16x) against Cagliari's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.36
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Bari xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.16 for Bari, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 17W 15D 8L from 40 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 8L across 40 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Cagliari against 1.70 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 12W 6D 2L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bari's away record stands at 10W 5D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.48 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Bari in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 15D 8L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Bari have gone 18W 14D 8L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bari away?
Cagliari's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 2.10 PPG; Bari away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Bari 0-1 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 65%, Bari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cagliari) and 35% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cagliari's games and 45% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cagliari's recent games and 35% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Bari tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Bari finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.38 xG and Bari 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Bari attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 40% | Draw 30% | Bari 30%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 42%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.65 PPG, Bari 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.