Bari 0-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Cagliari meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
Cagliari (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cagliari are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bari 1W, Cagliari 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bari — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 49% versus Cagliari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 37% | Cagliari 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.00 xG and Cagliari 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.993 / defence 0.961 | Cagliari attack 1.111 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.063. Data: 38 Bari games / 38 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 30% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 37%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bari 40% | Cagliari 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 30% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Bari 1.00 / Cagliari 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.993 / def 0.961 | Cagliari attack 1.111 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cagliari xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cagliari kick off?
Bari vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cagliari?
Bari 0 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Bari vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cagliari part of?
Bari vs Cagliari is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 30% chance of winning, Cagliari a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bari and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Bari and Cagliari in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bari's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (1.11x) against Bari's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
30%
3.32
33%
3.04
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bari xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Cagliari xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bari and 1.13 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari's recent record stands at 18W 15D 8L from 41 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 8L across 41 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Bari against 1.63 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bari have managed 8W 8D 3L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 9D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.34 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Cagliari in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 18W 15D 8L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 17W 16D 8L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cagliari away?
Bari's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.68 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Bari or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cagliari in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cagliari?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Bari 0-1 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 47%, Cagliari 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bari) and 37% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cagliari in 47%; Bari have failed to score in 26% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bari's recent matches and 37% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bari's recent games and 37% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Bari 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Bari 0-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.00 xG and Cagliari 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Cagliari attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 30% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 37%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Cagliari 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.68 PPG, Cagliari 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.