Bari 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Bari take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bari, 1.30 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bari 0W, Sudtirol 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 49% versus Sudtirol 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 38% | Sudtirol 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.94 xG and Sudtirol 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.997 / defence 0.953 | Sudtirol attack 0.759 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Bari games / 38 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 36% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 27%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Sudtirol 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sudtirol's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 40% | Sudtirol 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 36% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Bari 0.94 / Sudtirol 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.997 / def 0.953 | Sudtirol attack 0.759 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sudtirol xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 36% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.00) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.76x) against Bari's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
37%
2.70
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bari xG
Total xG
1.71
0.77
Sudtirol xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 13.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bari and 0.77 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Bari have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 17W 14D 8L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 16W 16D 7L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Bari against 1.64 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 8W 6D 4L from 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.03 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Sudtirol in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 14D 8L in their last 39 games (1.67 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 16W 16D 7L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.61 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bari or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
From 10 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 50%, Sudtirol 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Bari and 22% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sudtirol in 56%; Bari have failed to score in 28% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bari's recent matches and 28% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bari's recent games and 22% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.94 xG and Sudtirol 0.77 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Sudtirol attack 0.76 / defence 0.78, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 36% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Sudtirol 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.67 PPG, Sudtirol 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.