Brescia 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Brescia welcome Monza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 1.70 PPG versus Monza's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brescia have won 0, Monza 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 55% versus Monza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 34% | Monza 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.53 xG and Monza 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.124 / defence 1.012 | Monza attack 0.988 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Brescia games / 38 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 47% | Draw 27% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 3.85. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 47% | Draw 27% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Brescia 1.53 / Monza 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.124 / def 1.012 | Monza attack 0.988 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Brescia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Monza kick off?
Brescia vs Monza kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Monza?
Brescia 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Brescia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Monza part of?
Brescia vs Monza is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 47% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brescia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Brescia and Monza in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.12x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.70
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.08
Monza xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Brescia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Brescia and 1.08 for Monza, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 15D 6L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (19W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.74 PPG, Monza on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 8W 8D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Monza in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Monza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 17W 15D 6L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Monza have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Monza away?
Brescia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.68 PPG; Monza away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Brescia or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Monza in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Monza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Brescia's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brescia
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Monza 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 58%, Monza 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Brescia) and 42% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Monza in 32%; Monza in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Brescia's games and 53% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Brescia's recent games and 42% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Monza tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Monza in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Brescia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.53 xG and Monza 1.08 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against Monza attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 47% | Draw 27% | Monza 26%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 34%, Monza 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.74 PPG, Monza 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.