Sudtirol 0-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 1L across 9 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.50 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Modena in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Modena in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 56% and Modena 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 39% | Modena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.48 xG and Modena 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.921 / defence 1.051 | Modena attack 1.036 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Sudtirol games / 18 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 30% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 78% | Modena 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 30% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sudtirol 1.48 / Modena 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.921 / def 1.051 | Modena attack 1.036 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Modena xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol 0 - 2 Modena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.92) and Modena's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.35
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.66
1.18
Modena xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.18 for Modena, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 6W 8D 4L from 18 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 8L across 18 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.44 PPG, Modena on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 2W 6D 1L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Modena have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.33 PPG; Modena away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 78%, Modena at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sudtirol) and 67% (Modena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Sudtirol's games and 67% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Sudtirol's matches and 67% of Modena's.
Do Sudtirol and Modena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Modena in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Sudtirol 0-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.48 xG and Modena 1.18 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Modena attack 1.04 / defence 1.41, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 30% | Modena 28%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 39%, Modena 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.44 PPG, Modena 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.