Pisa 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 40%, yet in-form Benevento provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Pisa welcome Benevento to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Benevento have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Benevento's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pisa's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Pisa have won 1, Benevento 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Benevento in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Benevento 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 31% | Benevento 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.20 xG and Benevento 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.995 / defence 0.952 | Benevento attack 0.982 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Data: 38 Pisa games / 38 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Benevento 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Pisa 1.20 / Benevento 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.995 / def 0.952 | Benevento attack 0.982 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Benevento kick off?
Pisa vs Benevento kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Pisa 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Pisa vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Benevento part of?
Pisa vs Benevento is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pisa and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Pisa and Benevento in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.28
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.21
1.01
Benevento xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pisa and 1.01 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 13D 8L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (19W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.72 PPG, Benevento on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pisa's home form reads 10W 8D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.54 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Benevento in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Benevento in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 13D 8L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Benevento have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Benevento away?
Pisa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Pisa or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Benevento in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Benevento runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Benevento have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Benevento?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 47%, Benevento 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Pisa and 26% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Benevento in 37%; Benevento in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pisa's recent matches and 37% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pisa's recent games and 26% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Benevento tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Benevento in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Benevento 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.20 xG and Benevento 1.01 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Benevento attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 30%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 31%, Benevento 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.72 PPG, Benevento 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.