🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Benevento at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Benevento and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sudtirol have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sudtirol haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 1 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Sudtirol winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.38 xG and Sudtirol 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 0.988 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Sudtirol games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Benevento 39% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights