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Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Bari 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Bari 0-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.88 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 20%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 36%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.18 PPG, Sudtirol 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights