🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Bari at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Sudtirol encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sudtirol (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bari's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bari 2W, Sudtirol 2W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bari half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 60% versus Sudtirol 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 36% | Sudtirol 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.998 / defence 0.993 | Sudtirol attack 0.813 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bari games / 55 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 20%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 5.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 70% | Sudtirol 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights