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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bari run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Reggiana 4-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.02 xG and Reggiana 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Reggiana attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 35% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 32%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 40%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.13 PPG, Reggiana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights