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Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Bari 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Bari 2-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.08 xG and Frosinone 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Frosinone attack 1.13 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 34% | Draw 37% | Frosinone 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Frosinone's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.24 PPG, Frosinone 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights