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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Empoli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.12 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.12 PPG, Empoli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights