Bari 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Empoli to Stadio San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bari have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bari's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Empoli — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bari) versus 0.80 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Bari have won 0, Empoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Bari 0–5 Empoli — a Empoli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 38% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.12 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.720 / defence 1.117 | Empoli attack 0.936 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Bari's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Empoli's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 65 games and Empoli's last 27.
Result probabilities: Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.04 | Draw 3.26 | Empoli 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bari 1.12 / Empoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.720 / def 1.117 | Empoli attack 0.936 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Bari vs Empoli kick off?
Bari vs Empoli kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Empoli?
Bari 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Bari vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Empoli part of?
Bari vs Empoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 33% chance of winning, Empoli a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bari vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bari's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 65 games and Empoli's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.26
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bari xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Empoli xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bari and 1.20 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Bari have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 15W 28D 22L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 13W 23D 29L from 65 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.12 PPG, Empoli on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 14D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 7D 16L from their last 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Bari vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 15W 28D 22L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 23D 29L in their last 65 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Empoli away?
Bari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.42 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 4 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Empoli?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2026: Bari 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 61%, Empoli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 61% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Empoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bari's games and 61% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 61% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Bari's recent matches and 77% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.12 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.12 PPG, Empoli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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