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Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.48 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Carrarese outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Carrarese attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 27%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Carrarese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights