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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari and Brescia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, as Bari and Brescia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.11 xG and Brescia 0.76 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Brescia attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 41% | Draw 38% | Brescia 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 33%, Brescia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Brescia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.20 PPG, Brescia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights