Bari 2-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Bari (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brescia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bari's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Bari are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bari and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Brescia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 33% | Brescia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.11 xG and Brescia 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.000 / defence 0.947 | Brescia attack 0.766 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.045. Data: 59 Bari games / 59 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 41% | Draw 38% | Brescia 22%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.44 | Draw 2.63 | Brescia 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 50% | Brescia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 41% | Draw 38% | Brescia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Bari 1.11 / Brescia 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.000 / def 0.947 | Brescia attack 0.766 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Bari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Brescia xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Brescia kick off?
Bari vs Brescia kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Brescia?
Bari 2 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Bari vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Brescia part of?
Bari vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 41% chance of winning, Brescia a 22% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bari and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Brescia?
Record (5 meetings): Bari 4W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Bari and Brescia in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.00) and Brescia's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.77x) against Bari's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
41%
2.45
38%
2.67
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bari xG
Total xG
1.87
0.76
Brescia xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bari and 0.76 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 27D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (17W 24D 19L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Bari against 1.25 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bari's home form reads 10W 14D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Brescia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 15W 27D 18L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Brescia have gone 17W 24D 19L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Brescia away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Brescia away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 6-2 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bari
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 4, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bari 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Brescia?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Bari and 33% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bari's games and 57% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Bari's recent games and 33% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Brescia tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Brescia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Brescia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, as Bari and Brescia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.11 xG and Brescia 0.76 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Brescia attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 41% | Draw 38% | Brescia 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 33%, Brescia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.20 PPG, Brescia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.