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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Sudtirol 3-2 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 0.89 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Sudtirol attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 23% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 46%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Sudtirol 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.20 PPG, Sudtirol 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights