Avellino vs Benevento Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Avellino face Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to face Avellino in Serie B (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Avellino's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Avellino at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Benevento away from home: 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from their last 4 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended Avellino 1–1 Benevento — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Benevento — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 64% versus Benevento 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Avellino 36% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.50 xG and Benevento 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.160 / defence 0.824 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Data: built from Avellino's last 49 games and Benevento's last 11.
Result probabilities: Avellino 51% | Draw 29% | Benevento 20%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 1.98 | Draw 3.40 | Benevento 4.99. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Avellino's last 10 home games and Benevento's last 4 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Avellino 50% (last 10 home games) | Benevento 0% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 51% | Draw 29% | Benevento 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Avellino 1.50 / Benevento 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.160 / def 0.824 | Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Avellino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Avellino vs Benevento FAQs
What time does Avellino vs Benevento kick off?
Avellino vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Benevento part of?
Avellino vs Benevento is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 51% chance of winning, Benevento a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Avellino and Benevento will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Avellino vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Avellino's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.85x) against Avellino's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Avellino's last 49 games and Benevento's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.40
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.37
0.87
Benevento xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Avellino vs Benevento Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Avellino and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Avellino and 0.87 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 4W 4D 3L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Avellino against 1.45 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 4 home games (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Benevento
Blended
Avellino (Home) vs Benevento (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Avellino
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Avellino vs Benevento Form FAQs
What form are Avellino and Benevento in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Benevento away?
Avellino's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.75 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to November 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Avellino
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Avellino vs Benevento H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Benevento?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Avellino have won 0, Benevento have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Avellino and Benevento last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Benevento 1-1 Avellino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Benevento's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Avellino) and 0% (Benevento) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Avellino and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Avellino vs Benevento Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Avellino and Benevento matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Avellino's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Avellino and Benevento matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Avellino's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Benevento matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Avellino's recent matches and 25% of Benevento's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
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