Avellino 2-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Avellino face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avellino and Bari meet at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Avellino's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Avellino have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Bari's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Avellino, 1.30 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Avellino, 0 for Bari and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Avellino 1–1 Bari — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 54% versus Bari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 49% | Bari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.40 xG and Bari 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.865 / defence 1.190 | Bari attack 0.790 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.101. Bari's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Avellino's last 35 games and Bari's last 73.
Result probabilities: Avellino 43% | Draw 31% | Bari 26%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.31 | Draw 3.24 | Bari 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Avellino are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Avellino 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 43% | Draw 31% | Bari 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Avellino 1.40 / Bari 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.865 / def 1.190 | Bari attack 0.790 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Avellino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bari xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Avellino vs Bari FAQs
What time does Avellino vs Bari kick off?
Avellino vs Bari kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Bari?
Avellino 2 - 0 Bari.
Where is Avellino vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Bari part of?
Avellino vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 43% chance of winning, Bari a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Avellino and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Avellino vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Avellino's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.79x) against Avellino's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Avellino's last 35 games and Bari's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.24
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Bari xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Avellino vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Avellino and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Avellino and 1.03 for Bari, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 11W 10D 14L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 8W 10D 17L from 35 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Avellino against 0.97 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 17 home games (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 10L from their last 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Avellino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.94 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
Avellino (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Avellino
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Avellino vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Avellino and Bari in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Bari have gone 8W 10D 17L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Bari away?
Avellino's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.53 PPG; Bari away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Avellino and Bari, the earliest from December 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avellino
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Avellino vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Bari?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Avellino have won 1, Bari have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Avellino and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: Avellino 2-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Bari?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 59%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Avellino) and 53% (Bari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Avellino vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Avellino and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Avellino's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Avellino and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Avellino's matches and 53% of Bari's.
Do Avellino and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Avellino's recent matches and 65% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avellino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Bari 2-0 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.40 xG and Bari 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 43% | Draw 31% | Bari 26%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 49%, Bari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avellino 1.23 PPG, Bari 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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