Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Cremonese at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ascoli's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Cremonese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.831 / defence 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.953 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.207. Data: 62 Ascoli games / 24 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 50% | Cremonese 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Ascoli 0.93 / Cremonese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.831 / def 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.953 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cremonese xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Ascoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Ascoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cremonese part of?
Ascoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ascoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.73
32%
3.17
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.14
1.22
Cremonese xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.22 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli's recent record stands at 17W 18D 27L from 62 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 26L across 62 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.11 PPG, Cremonese on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cremonese away?
Ascoli's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.20 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Cremonese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ascoli) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ascoli's games and 60% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ascoli's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 25, as Ascoli and Cremonese drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Cremonese 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.11 PPG, Cremonese 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.