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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.15 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.60 / defence 0.96 against Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 22% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 53%, Fiorentina 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.34 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights