Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Fiorentina at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Fiorentina's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Venezia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Venezia have won 1, Fiorentina 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 55% versus Fiorentina 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 53% | Fiorentina 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.598 / defence 0.959 | Fiorentina attack 1.050 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.140. Venezia's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Venezia games / 73 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Venezia's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 30% | Fiorentina 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Venezia 0.70 / Fiorentina 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.598 / def 0.959 | Fiorentina attack 1.050 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fiorentina xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Fiorentina kick off?
Venezia vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Venezia vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Fiorentina part of?
Venezia vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 22% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Venezia and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Venezia and Fiorentina in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.60x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
22%
4.60
33%
3.05
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Venezia xG
Total xG
1.85
1.15
Fiorentina xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 18.0 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Venezia and 1.15 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 26W 20D 27L from 73 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 34W 17D 22L across 73 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.34 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 18W 7D 11L from 36 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 13W 8D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 26W 20D 27L in their last 73 games (1.34 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 34W 17D 22L in their last 73 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Fiorentina away?
Venezia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.69 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Fiorentina runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?
From 5 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 56%, Fiorentina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 44% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Venezia's recent matches and 50% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.15 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.60 / defence 0.96 against Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 22% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 53%, Fiorentina 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.34 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.