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Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Cagliari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 67%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights