Venezia 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 December 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Venezia) versus 0.90 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 1 for Cagliari and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 67% | Cagliari 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.834 / defence 1.252 | Cagliari attack 0.834 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.325. Data: 16 Venezia games / 54 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Cagliari 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 1.22 / Cagliari 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.834 / def 1.252 | Cagliari attack 0.834 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cagliari xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cagliari kick off?
Venezia vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Venezia 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Venezia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cagliari part of?
Venezia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 33% chance of winning, Cagliari a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 3 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.83) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.81
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Cagliari xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Venezia and 1.38 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 26L across 54 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 16W 3D 7L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 7D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 11W 17D 26L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cagliari away?
Venezia's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.96 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Cagliari runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Venezia
3
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
From 7 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Cagliari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Venezia) and 50% (Cagliari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Venezia's games and 50% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Cagliari's.
Do Venezia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 67%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.