🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 December 2024, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.

Cagliari — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Venezia) versus 0.90 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 1 for Cagliari and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Venezia in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Cagliari in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 67% | Cagliari 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.834 / defence 1.252 | Cagliari attack 0.834 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.325. Data: 16 Venezia games / 54 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Cagliari 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights