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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Venezia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.17 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 62%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

AS Roma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.44 PPG, AS Roma 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights