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Poisson rates AS Roma at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs AS Roma encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Venezia (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia's home record at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 62% | AS Roma 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.774 / defence 1.042 | AS Roma attack 0.918 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.333. Venezia's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Venezia games / 61 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | AS Roma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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