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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.53 xG and Monza 0.90 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Monza attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Monza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Monza 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights