Udinese 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Juventus meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventus's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Juventus have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Juventus have the stronger record — 7 wins to Udinese's 1, with 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Udinese 1–3 Juventus — a Juventus win.
Juventus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Juventus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 52% | Juventus 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Juventus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.32 xG and Juventus 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.984 / defence 0.993 | Juventus attack 1.326 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.176. Juventus have an above-average attack rating of 1.326, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Udinese's last 66 games and Juventus's last 66.
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.07 | Draw 4.04 | Juventus 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Juventus 7 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Udinese 1.32 / Juventus 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.984 / def 0.993 | Juventus attack 1.326 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Juventus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Juventus xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Juventus kick off?
Udinese vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Udinese 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Udinese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Juventus part of?
Udinese vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Juventus a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Udinese and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.98) and Juventus's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.33x) against Udinese's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 66 games and Juventus's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.04
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Juventus xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Udinese and 1.55 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 22W 14D 30L from 66 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 32W 24D 10L across 66 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 12W 7D 14L from their last 33 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 13W 12D 8L across their last 33 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.64 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 22W 14D 30L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Juventus have gone 32W 24D 10L in their last 66 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.30 PPG; Juventus away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Udinese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Juventus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juventus have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won Udinese 0-3 Juventus on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
8
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Juventus have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Udinese and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 46%, Juventus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 42% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Juventus in 30%; Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 42% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Udinese's recent matches and 70% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.32 xG and Juventus 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 25% | Juventus 43%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 52%, Juventus 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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