Udinese 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Inter travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Udinese's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.72 xG and Inter 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.847 / defence 1.178 | Inter attack 1.626 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.184. Inter's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.626 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Udinese games / 68 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 10.00 | Draw 5.56 | Inter 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Inter (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 70% | Inter 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 47% | xG Udinese 0.72 / Inter 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.847 / def 1.178 | Inter attack 1.626 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Inter (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Inter xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 10% chance of winning, Inter a 72% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 4W.
What form are Udinese and Inter in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-3 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
10%
10.33
18%
5.42
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.99
2.27
Inter xG
10.33
10%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
10%
9.65
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
1%
99.69
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Udinese and 2.27 for Inter, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 29D 24L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 48W 7D 13L from 68 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (7W 17D 9L).
On the road, Inter have gone 21W 5D 7L from 33 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.12 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 29D 24L in their last 68 games (1.09 PPG), while Inter have gone 48W 7D 13L in their last 68 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.15 PPG; Inter away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Inter 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 61% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Udinese's matches and 61% of Inter's.
Do Udinese and Inter tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Inter in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.72 xG and Inter 2.27 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Inter attack 1.63 / defence 0.62, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.