Udinese 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Inter travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Udinese — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inter stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Udinese have won 1, Inter 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Udinese 0–4 Inter — a Inter win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Inter 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Inter have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.72 xG and Inter 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.847 / defence 1.178 | Inter attack 1.626 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.184. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.625, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.626, which lifts their away xG to 2.27. Data: built from Udinese's last 68 games and Inter's last 68.
Result probabilities: Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 10.33 | Draw 5.42 | Inter 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Inter (72%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Inter's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 70% (last 10 home games) | Inter 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Udinese 0.72 / Inter 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.847 / def 1.178 | Inter attack 1.626 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Inter (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Inter xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Inter FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 10% chance of winning, Inter a 72% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 68 games and Inter's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-3 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
10%
10.33
18%
5.42
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.99
2.27
Inter xG
10.33
10%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
10%
9.65
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
1%
99.69
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Inter Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Udinese and 2.27 for Inter, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 29D 24L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 48W 7D 13L from 68 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 33 home games (7W 17D 9L).
On the road, Inter have gone 21W 5D 7L from their last 33 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.12 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Inter (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Inter Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 29D 24L in their last 68 games (1.09 PPG), while Inter have gone 48W 7D 13L in their last 68 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.15 PPG; Inter away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won Inter 4-0 Udinese.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Inter H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Inter 5-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Inter 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 61% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Inter Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Inter matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Inter matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Udinese's matches and 61% of Inter's.
Do Udinese and Inter matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Udinese's recent matches and 73% of Inter's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.72 xG and Inter 2.27 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Inter attack 1.63 / defence 0.62, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 10% | Draw 18% | Inter 72%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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