Udinese 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Cremonese meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Udinese's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Cremonese (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Udinese's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) — Udinese have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Udinese edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2025, ended Udinese 1–1 Cremonese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Cremonese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.878 / defence 0.854 | Cremonese attack 0.653 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.145. Cremonese's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Udinese's last 74 games and Cremonese's last 36.
Result probabilities: Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.78 | Draw 3.65 | Cremonese 6.04. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Udinese 1.43 / Cremonese 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.878 / def 0.854 | Cremonese attack 0.653 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Udinese (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cremonese xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Cremonese kick off?
Udinese vs Cremonese kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Udinese 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Udinese vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Cremonese part of?
Udinese vs Cremonese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 56% chance of winning, Cremonese a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Udinese and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Udinese vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.65x) against Udinese's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 74 games and Cremonese's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.65
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.06
0.64
Cremonese xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Udinese and 0.64 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 74 games, going 26W 16D 32L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.26 PPG from 74 outings (23W 24D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Udinese against 1.26 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 13W 8D 16L across their last 37 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 37 away games (13W 8D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 26W 16D 32L in their last 74 games (1.27 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 23W 24D 27L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Cremonese away?
Udinese's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.27 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won Udinese 3-0 Cremonese on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Udinese 0-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Cremonese 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Udinese) and 57% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 49% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Udinese's recent games and 57% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Udinese's recent matches and 62% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Cremonese attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Cremonese 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.27 PPG, Cremonese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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