🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese and Bologna finished level at 0-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Bologna attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 34% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights