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Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Monday 28 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bologna have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bologna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.10 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Udinese — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).

Bologna — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Bologna 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.919 / defence 1.228 | Bologna attack 0.934 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.114. Data: 71 Udinese games / 71 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 34% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 40% | Bologna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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