Torino 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Torino take on Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus Genoa in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Torino's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Torino, 1.50 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Torino edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Torino 0–0 Genoa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 37% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 38% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 31% | Genoa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.01 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.737 / defence 0.761 | Genoa attack 0.789 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.332. Torino's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Genoa's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Torino have a tight defence (rating 0.761), which is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Data: built from Torino's last 61 games and Genoa's last 61.
Result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 39% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.75 | Draw 2.60 | Genoa 3.98. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 30% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 39% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Torino 1.01 / Genoa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.737 / def 0.761 | Genoa attack 0.789 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Genoa xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Torino vs Genoa kick off?
Torino vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Genoa?
Torino 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Torino vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Genoa part of?
Torino vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 36% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Torino and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Torino vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.74x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.79x) against Torino's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 61 games and Genoa's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
39%
2.60
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Torino xG
Total xG
1.81
0.80
Genoa xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Torino and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Torino and 0.80 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torino come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 23D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (18W 21D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Torino against 1.23 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Torino's home form reads 11W 13D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Torino (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Torino vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Torino and Genoa in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 19W 23D 19L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Genoa have gone 18W 21D 22L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Genoa away?
Torino's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.53 PPG; Genoa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Torino or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Genoa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Torino on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 3, Genoa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Genoa?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 27%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Torino and 43% for Genoa.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 47% of games; Genoa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Torino's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Torino's recent games and 43% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Torino and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.01 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.74 / defence 0.76 against Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 36% | Draw 39% | Genoa 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 31%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.31 PPG, Genoa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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