🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Bologna (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lecce face Bologna.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Bologna — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Lecce.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Lecce trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Bologna trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 42% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Bologna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.725 / defence 1.204 | Bologna attack 1.161 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.329. Lecce's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Lecce games / 60 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Bologna 54%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 1.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights