Torino 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Torino take on Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torino and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Torino (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Torino against 1.10 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Torino, 0 for Empoli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Torino — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Empoli — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 50% versus Empoli 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 44% | Empoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.94 xG and Empoli 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.744 / defence 0.823 | Empoli attack 0.925 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.130. Torino's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Torino games / 46 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 38% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Empoli 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 38% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Torino 0.94 / Empoli 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.744 / def 0.823 | Empoli attack 0.925 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Empoli xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Empoli kick off?
Torino vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Empoli?
Torino 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Torino vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Empoli part of?
Torino vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 33% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Torino and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Torino and Empoli in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Torino's attack rating (0.74) and Empoli's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.93x) against Torino's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
38%
2.65
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Torino xG
Total xG
1.80
0.86
Empoli xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Torino and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Torino and 0.86 for Empoli, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torino's recent record stands at 16W 12D 18L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 20L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Torino against 1.04 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Torino have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.24 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Empoli in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Empoli away?
Torino's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.50 PPG; Empoli away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Torino have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Torino
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Torino have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Torino 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Empoli?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Torino) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 27% of games; Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Torino's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Torino's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Empoli tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Empoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 9, as Torino and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.94 xG and Empoli 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.74 / defence 0.82 against Empoli attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 33% | Draw 38% | Empoli 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 44%, Empoli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.30 PPG, Empoli 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.