Empoli 1-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 66% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 51% | Monza 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.48 xG and Monza 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.858 / defence 1.235 | Monza attack 0.913 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.183. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Empoli games / 9 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Monza 32%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Monza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Monza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Empoli 1.48 / Monza 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.858 / def 1.235 | Monza attack 0.913 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Empoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Monza xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Monza kick off?
Empoli vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Monza?
Empoli 1 - 0 Monza.
Where is Empoli vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Monza part of?
Empoli vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 38% chance of winning, Monza a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Empoli and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Monza in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Monza (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.86x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.91x) against Empoli's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.35
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.82
1.33
Monza xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Empoli and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Empoli and 1.33 for Monza, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 47 games, going 11W 16D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.77 PPG from 47 outings (25W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 4W 7D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.62 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Monza in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 16D 20L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 8D 14L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.83 PPG; Monza away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Empoli or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Monza in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won 3-0 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Monza?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Monza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Monza?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Empoli, 52% for Monza — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Empoli and 56% for Monza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Empoli's games and 52% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Empoli's matches and 56% of Monza's.
Do Empoli and Monza tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Monza in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Monza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.48 xG and Monza 1.33 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monza landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Monza attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Monza 32%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 51%, Monza 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.