Cremonese 1-4 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Napoli meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 2.00 PPG clear of Cremonese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.60 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cremonese have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Napoli in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Napoli — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 59% versus Napoli 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Napoli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.67 xG and Napoli 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.617 / defence 1.348 | Napoli attack 1.410 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.129. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Napoli's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Cremonese games / 46 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 8% | Draw 22% | Napoli 70%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 12.50 | Draw 4.55 | Napoli 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (70%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 60% | Napoli 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 8% | Draw 22% | Napoli 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 0.67 / Napoli 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.617 / def 1.348 | Napoli attack 1.410 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Napoli (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Napoli xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Napoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Napoli?
Cremonese 1 - 4 Napoli.
Where is Cremonese vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Napoli part of?
Cremonese vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 8% chance of winning, Napoli a 70% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Napoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Napoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Napoli (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.41x) against Cremonese's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-3 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
8%
11.79
22%
4.60
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.81
2.15
Napoli xG
11.79
8%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
12%
8.55
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
1%
100.83
36%
2.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 12.9 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Cremonese and 2.15 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 12D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.15 PPG from 46 outings (30W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cremonese's home form reads 11W 7D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.27 points per game from 22 outings (15W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Napoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Napoli have gone 30W 9D 7L in their last 46 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.82 PPG; Napoli away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Napoli in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Napoli have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 4-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Napoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Napoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Napoli 4-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Napoli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 59%, Napoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 59% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Napoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cremonese's games and 54% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 59% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Napoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Napoli in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cremonese 1-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.67 xG and Napoli 2.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 2.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Napoli attack 1.41 / defence 0.78, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 8% | Draw 22% | Napoli 70%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Napoli 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.