🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bologna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Torino 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.80 / defence 0.84 against Bologna attack 1.11 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 36%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights