🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Torino at 38%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Torino vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Torino — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Bologna's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Torino's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Torino, 2 for Bologna and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Torino in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 36% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 34% | Bologna 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.804 / defence 0.842 | Bologna attack 1.115 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.323. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Torino games / 53 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 36%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 40% | Bologna 50%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights