Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Relegation Decider as Spezia welcome Hellas Verona to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Spezia's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hellas Verona's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Spezia's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Spezia have won 1, Hellas Verona 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 51% versus Hellas Verona 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 54% | Hellas Verona 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.01 xG and Hellas Verona 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.719 / defence 1.273 | Hellas Verona attack 0.714 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.194. Spezia's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Spezia games / 76 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 33% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 37%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Hellas Verona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 20% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Relegation Decider | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 33% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Spezia 1.01 / Hellas Verona 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.719 / def 1.273 | Hellas Verona attack 0.714 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Spezia 1 - 3 Hellas Verona.
Where is Spezia vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Spezia vs Hellas Verona part of?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona is a Relegation Decider fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 33% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Spezia and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Record (4 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.72) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.34
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Spezia and 1.08 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 16W 19D 41L from 76 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 34L across 76 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.88 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 9W 11D 18L from 38 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 6W 15D 17L across 38 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.26 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 66%.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 16W 19D 41L in their last 76 games (0.88 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 21W 21D 34L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Hellas Verona away?
Spezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Hellas Verona runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Hellas Verona won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
From 5 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Hellas Verona 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Spezia) and 42% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 32% of games; Hellas Verona in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Spezia's games and 66% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Spezia's recent games and 42% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Spezia 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Relegation Decider, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.01 xG and Hellas Verona 1.08 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.72 / defence 1.27 against Hellas Verona attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 33% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 37%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 54%, Hellas Verona 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.88 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.