AS Roma 2-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 4 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Spezia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spezia's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward AS Roma. A 0.60 PPG lead over Spezia (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, AS Roma are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Spezia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Spezia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.57 xG and Spezia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.076 / defence 0.939 | Spezia attack 0.777 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.177. Data: 75 AS Roma games / 75 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 5.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG AS Roma 1.57 / Spezia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.076 / def 0.939 | Spezia attack 0.777 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Spezia xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Spezia kick off?
AS Roma vs Spezia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Spezia?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Spezia.
Where is AS Roma vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Spezia part of?
AS Roma vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 54% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Spezia in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.08) and Spezia's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.78x) against AS Roma's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.95
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.43
0.86
Spezia xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.86 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 35W 18D 22L from 75 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 40L across 75 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 20W 9D 8L from 37 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 7W 8D 22L across 37 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.95 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Spezia in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 18D 22L in their last 75 games (1.64 PPG), while Spezia have gone 16W 19D 40L in their last 75 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Spezia away?
AS Roma's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.86 PPG; Spezia away: 0.78 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Spezia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Spezia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when AS Roma 2-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Spezia?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Spezia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AS Roma) and 54% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Spezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 49% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AS Roma's recent games and 54% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Spezia tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Spezia in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Spezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.57 xG and Spezia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Spezia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.