Spezia 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 22 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 0.80 PPG clear of Spezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, AS Roma in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Spezia 0W, AS Roma 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 55% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 59% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.27 xG and AS Roma 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.945 / defence 1.125 | AS Roma attack 1.186 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.131. Data: 56 Spezia games / 56 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 43%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 70% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Spezia 1.27 / AS Roma 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.945 / def 1.125 | AS Roma attack 1.186 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs AS Roma kick off?
Spezia vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs AS Roma?
Spezia 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Spezia vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs AS Roma part of?
Spezia vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, AS Roma a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Spezia and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Spezia and AS Roma in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.94) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.19x) against Spezia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
32%
3.14
25%
3.97
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.78
1.51
AS Roma xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Spezia and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Spezia and 1.51 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 30L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 15L across 56 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 13W 6D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.46 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 12D 30L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 13D 15L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.07 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Spezia or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AS Roma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when AS Roma 2-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 64%, AS Roma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Spezia) and 57% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Spezia's games and 61% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Spezia's matches and 57% of AS Roma's.
Do Spezia and AS Roma tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.27 xG and AS Roma 1.51 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.19 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 43%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 59%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.