Bologna 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Cremonese meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bologna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cremonese in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 54% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.78 xG and Cremonese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.998 / defence 0.953 | Cremonese attack 0.787 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.155. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Bologna games / 18 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Cremonese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 70% | Cremonese 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Bologna 1.78 / Cremonese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.998 / def 0.953 | Cremonese attack 0.787 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Bologna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cremonese kick off?
Bologna vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cremonese?
Bologna 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Bologna vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cremonese part of?
Bologna vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 59% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Cremonese in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.79x) against Bologna's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.35
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.65
0.87
Cremonese xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bologna and 0.87 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna's recent record stands at 18W 14D 24L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 20L across 56 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Bologna against 1.36 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cremonese away?
Bologna's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.54 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 1-5 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cremonese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Cremonese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 50% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cremonese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 19, as Bologna and Cremonese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.78 xG and Cremonese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Cremonese attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 54%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.21 PPG, Cremonese 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.